From Drought to Wash-Out

A spring flows from the middle of Cottonwood Canyon Road every year so the road becoming impassible for a few weeks in the late spring and early summer is something we have learned to live with.  This year has been a different story, though.  The road is washed out for a large portion of its entire length and in several places.  This devastation has been more than an inconvenience to many; access to the west side of the ranch is limited to bull pasture, the fish stocking truck had to come across Morton Pass, etc..  So I thought it would be interesting to see what might be the primary cause.

First, I made some observations around the ranch, then I talked to partners who have been on the ranch a while about theirs and what they have seen in the past. All seem to agree, this is not typical. Riding around the ranch, you can see water running in places you have never seen it before this late in the year or in some places at all. The hillsides are greener than most have seen this late in the year, too, and the meadows are lush. So it would appear that we are having a very wet year. Is there some scientific evidence of this or do we just have short memories? It would appear that we are having a very wet year. Having been an environmental chemist, though, I like scientific fact.  So I looked and found that there is more than anecdotal evidence that we are having a wet season.

Water is a critical resource and is often scarce, particularly in the Western US. The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) keeps very extensive records on temperature and water: precipitation, moisture in the soil, etc. and reports their findings on the Internet. Since the primary concern regarding water for most people, including the NCDC, is the lack of it, the NCDC has reports focusing on drought. Their primary measure for drought is the Palmer Index (a combination of temperature and rainfall). Attached are two maps and a chart taken from the NCDC website. The first map shows the short term drought conditions for the US as of June 2010. (This is the most current data available at the time of this writing). As you can see, the ranch is right in the middle of an area designated as "Extremely Moist." Compare that map to one as recent as June 2007 where most of the West was in severe drought.

Note: You can click on the maps or chart to see a larger image. You can also access this map for any desired year and month HERE. (You will need a high speed connection to use this site.)

The chart shows the Palmer Drought Severity Index for Wyoming Climate Division 10 (the area that includes the FXR) for June since 1895. As you can see 2009 was the first year in a decade where the ranch was not in drought and 2010 has been even wetter. Since the formation of the FXR, only 1995 has been wetter and most of those years have been moderate to severe drought. Statistics may be boring, but this graph makes me wonder what the ranch looked like in the early 1900's.

Note: You can access precipitation and temperature rankings for any desired year and month HERE.

This wet season may raise the age old question, "Can you have too much of a good thing?" In the case of Cottonwood Canyon Road, we might say, "yes," but if we can bear with the inconvenience, we can be thankful that the drought in south-eastern Wyoming, if not over for a while, is at least set back this year. So the best thing I can think to do is to go out and enjoy how beautiful and lush the ranch has remained this summer and hope that we have several years ahead like it. We can also hope that repairs to Cottonwood Canyon Road improve its stability in these conditions for years to come - that is the intent.

-John Parker